Michael Ignatieff - The Electable Liberal

Yesterday was one of those moments where the political landscape changed drastically in Canada. The Liberal Party, long seen as a tired horse in the slowest stampede on the continent - i.e. Canadian politics - turned a page when it announced Michael Ignatieff as their new federal leader. It also quietly reinforced a notion that many had felt since Jean Chretien was halfway through his tenure as PM - the Liberals need not just a qualified leader, but an electable one.

There have been case studies since the 1990s that have proved this hypothesis. Paul Martin inherited the office of the Prime Minister and was eventually discovered to be a man who either was or seemed incredibly nervous in front of the cameras, often dithering his way through town hall meetings and debates. And when the time came to elect a new leader, the party went with Stephane Dion, a principled but watered down version of what Chretien was in his prime. Let's be honest here - your party can't expect to get elected in Canada if your English sounds forced. And while many point to Chretien's often incomprehensible banter when he spoke, the man was as tough as they come. Ask any protester. Dion, on the other hand, seemed nerdy, weak and not very believable when he put on his tough guy face. Add to the brine the permanently marred reputation of Bob Rae, a green horned youngster (Justin Trudeau) and a slew of cast members who fall short of being Prime Minister material and your recipe for a viable contending party seems rather weak.

The Conservatives, on the other hand, have a real leader in Stephen Harper. You can say what you want about the man - he's arrogant, self serving and a control freak - but you'd be lying to yourself if you didn't recognize his gifts in political strategy and exploiting oppositional shortcomings. But, as is often the case in politics, it is our gifts that turn into our weaknesses. It happened to Douglas. It happened to Trudeau. It happened to Mulroney and Chretien. And it is right now happening to Stephen Harper.

When the house of cards coalition failed last year, Harper set the stage for an eventual Conservative defeat by proroguing Parliament. He didn't roll the dice at a time when the Liberals were essentially leaderless. Granted, it could have backfired, but the odds on the Liberal/NDP/BQ somehow working together in the interests of all Canadians seemed more than far-fetched. Harper should have taken the risk and allowed the coalition to fail, but instead chose the path of least resistance and gave the Liberals enough time to regroup.

Enter Michael Ignatieff.

The Etobicoke/Lakeshore MP has only been in Canadian politics for 3 years but has a biography of a leader in waiting. His family tree includes several prominent Canadian and Russian scholars and diplomats, and he has the nostalgic additive of being a youth volunteer for the Trudeau campaign in 1965. Aside from the metaphorical nepotism, his moderate positions are more attractive to the segment of Canadians who normally back the Conservative Party. He can speak eloquently, has a high political acumen and is well rounded enough to identify with most Canadians. His downside is tangible as well, but they tend to fall on the side of Conservative dogma, rather than socialist sticking points. His stance on torture was widely criticized by the Canadian left, but occurrences such as the Omar Khadr affair seem to put his views more cohesive with the Conservatives who would be foolish to take him to task on issues they seem to agree with in principle.

The Conservatives must have relished the moment Stephane Dion was elected the new leader of the federal Liberal Party, but that honeymoon is over. Stephen Harper, the ultimate strategist and scrupulous to the core, will now face his most formidable match to date. And while nothing is scribed in stone, you get the feeling that this time the opposition party is not only ready, but waiting with an electable leader, instead of an ordinary man with a few good ideas.